Local Cities Gain Population

FARMINGTON -- The 2020 census figures are in and they reflect what city officials expected to see, housing construction over the years shows more people are moving to western Washington County.

The populations of Prairie Grove and Farmington increased 40.66% during the past 10-year period, with Prairie Grove having the greatest percentage population increase, according to 2020 U.S. census figures released Aug. 12.

According to the numbers, Prairie Grove's population increased from 4,426 in the 2010 census to 7,045 in the 2020 census, a 59% increase. Prairie Grove's population has increased 177% since the 2000 census.

Farmington's population increased from 5,974, based on the 2010 census, to 7,584 in 2020, an almost 27% increase. Farmington's population has increased 110% since the 2000 census.

The city of Lincoln saw a 2% increase in population from the 2010 census to the 2020 census. According to the figures, Lincoln had a population of 2,249 in 2010 and this increased to 2,294 in the 2021 census. Lincoln's population has increased 45.9% since 2000.

Overall, the 2020 census figures show that Northwest Arkansas has had explosive growth the past 10 years. The area's two largest counties, Benton and Washington counties, grew by 105,800 people between April 1, 2010, and April 1, 2020.

Washington County's population increased by 21.1%, from 203,065 to 245,871.

Farmington Mayor Ernie Penn last week said his estimate was that Farmington's 2020 population would be between 7,500 and 8,000.

"That was realistic then, but it's not realistic now," Penn said Friday. By email, Penn wrote, "The crazy thing is that we will probably grow that much in the next three to five years with all of the new subdivisions."

He said the city has issued 321 permits for new single-family homes so far in 2021.

"At an average of three people per household, that would be 1,000 people," Penn said.

He said he believes Farmington probably is "well over 1,000" from the population figure in the 2020 census and he wouldn't be surprised if the city grows by 2,000 to 3,000 people in the next three years.

Penn said he's hearing many mayors say their population numbers are low.

He believes Farmington's population is about right because the city encouraged people to fill out the census forms with a flyer in the mail, social media and the city website.

The city's response rate was 80% and Farmington was in the top five cities for response rate.

"I think that census was about right," Penn said. "The growth is manageable. What it's going to be like in the next 10 years, I don't know."

Sonny Hudson, Prairie Grove mayor, said he thought the population growth would be a little higher but the numbers were around what city officials expected.

Hudson said he believes Prairie Grove will continue to grow as long as growth is happening in Northwest Arkansas.

"There's going to be a point when things have to slow down but who knows," Hudson said. "I think we have the capability and the ability to keep growing."

Hudson said he believes Prairie Grove has grown so much during the past 10 years because the community had lots available for new homes, and people want to live in Prairie Grove. Many people like the city's combination of being away from the hustle and bustle of larger cities but also being close enough to go if they need to, Hudson said.

Doug Hutchens, mayor of Lincoln, said he was thankful Lincoln's population did not decline. He noted that 2010 was in the worst part of the recession, and recovery had just started in the past three to four years.

"It's not surprising," Hutchens said. "Historically, Lincoln has not seen big growth."

Since the cut-off for the 2020 census, Lincoln has seen new houses going up and the headcount increasing, Hutchens said, adding he expects to see a couple subdivisions built out in the next three to five years.

Presently, Lincoln has an occupation rate 90% or greater and people moving into the community, Hutchens said.